FAQ: Introduction to Data Science - Probability


#1

This community-built FAQ covers the “Probability” exercise from the lesson “Introduction to Data Science”.

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#2

I have zero knowledge of scientific probability so it may be just me, but on a purely common-sense level the result of this script feels completely counter-intuitive:
If there are 365 possible unique birth dates and there are 90 people in the room (i.e. 1/4 of the number of unique birthdates), how can the probability of two of them having the same birthday be “nearly 100%”?

Moreover, why does the script return an error if I enter a number of people higher than 120?


#3

This is a well known problem called the birthday paradox.

When there are 23 people in a room, the probability of two having the same birthday is roughly 0.5. That number goes up quickly as more and more people enter the room. With 90 people in the room the chance of no two having the same birthday is very small, about 0.00002. So the probability that at least two people have the same birthday is 1 - 0.00002 which is still very close to 1.

>>> 90 * 89 / 2
4005.0
>>> (364/365) ** 4005
1.690905614940199e-05
>>> 1 - (364/365) ** 4005
0.9999830909438506
>>>